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The figures provided by the interactive CarbonChain CBAM Certificate Estimator (BETA) are estimated potential certificate prices. These are based on tonnage traded, emissions factors in the CarbonChain database and the difference between the EU ETS and the carbon pricing scheme in that non-EU country*.
This tool only includes direct emissions, in line with the official CBAM regulation (16 May 2023). Previously, it included direct and indirect emissions in line with the CBAM regulation.
*If a country has its own carbon pricing scheme equivalent to the EU ETS, the cost of the CBAM certificate will be the EU ETS price minus the non-EU scheme price. The European Commission has not yet released details of which countries’ carbon pricing schemes will be considered equivalent. The CarbonChain CBAM Certificate Estimator uses best-available data and assumptions to factor in this calculation (including carbon pricing schemes set to be implemented by 2026).
Installations should calculate their emissions according to the methodology approved by the EU and report them to importers.
There are three overarching steps:
When the EU CBAM's carbon levy comes into effect in 2026, importers will need to purchase CBAM certificates (one per tonne of reported emissions). The certificate price will be tied to the EU ETS carbon price.
Importers will be able to use default emissions factors (provided by the European Council) or primary emissions data when reporting emissions for CBAM-covered goods.
The European Council will add a markup to CBAM certificates where default factors are used
Default factors will be based on worst-performing production assets in the relevant country.
Prepare for accurate CBAM reporting based on their specific suppliers and assets.
Find opportunities to reduce emissions (and reduce the cost of certificates) ahead of time.